Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Michael Jackson passes away and a catch up from the past few months

Gosh I've been slack to blog lately. I've been a busy girl! Let's see, what's been going on? Jamey and I visited Istanbul, Turkey at the end of May for several days. What a beautiful city! In early June, we went to California for the wedding of Jamey's middle brother, Corey. Oh, it was so nice to be in California!! Nice weather, good food, we had such a great time! After our CA trip, I flew back to London and Jamey flew to NY for his second week of class. He is well underway into his Executive Global MBA program with Columbia Business School and London Business School. It's certainly a lot of work, but he seems to be enjoying it. In late June, Jamey and I visited North Carolina for our annual summer trip. On the day I landed, we drove to Charlotte so that I could attend the bachelorette party for my good friend Kris. We had so much fun that night. The next weekend was the wedding. It was held at a Vineyard near Elkin. Again, it was so great to catch up with friends and just relax for the weekend. We ended our trip by spending a week at Wrightsville Beach for the 4th of July. The weather was bright, sunny and hot everyday we were there, just how I like it! Being there sure does make me miss home, especially when I return to England to find cool, dreary, rainy days! But, I'm getting back into the swing of things now. Spanish class started back again tonight, so I'm really looking forward to that. I'm visiting Orlando in a few weeks to join my mom, dad, brother and two nieces for some fun at Disney World! Mom and dad are coming to visit me in London in Aug/Sep, so that will be really nice. For now, I'm working on putting plans together for Virginia Anne's bachelorette party. Wow, lots of exciting festivities this year. Can't wait to see what else is in store!

Until next time,
Jac

Wait, one more thing: This should actually probably get its own blog post but... While I was home in NC, I was getting my eyebrows waxed at my favorite boutique and I learned from the girl working there that Michael Jackson had just died. Stunned and not sure whether I believed what I was hearing or not, I went on to have my eyebrows waxed. When we left, my mom, Steph and I discussed and said "is this really true, is Michael Jackson really dead?" We couldn't believe it, but it was true. On July 25th, 2009 a legend passed away. Michael Jackson was a staple to my childhood and adolescent years, I grew up with MJ and when he died, I felt like part of my childhood died with him. It was so sad. I'm just glad that I can say I lived during the Michael Jackson era. May he rest in peace and may his music live on forever. I'll miss you MJ!

Friday, May 29, 2009

Update on the past month or so and...

Okay, so the past month has been a busy one indeed. We have two bank holidays in May here in London, so for the first one, I went with Rachel to Madrid. Madrid may be my favorite destination to date!! I could see Jamey and I living there someday. Nice weather, amazing food, beautiful buzzing city!

For the second bank holiday, Jamey and I went to Istanbul. Again, another beautiful city! It's a huge city, so lots to see, but Jamey and I put a pretty good dent in it for the 4 days we were there. I'll try to add some photos from both trips later. I've already posted Madrid to my facebook, so check it out!

Okay, now to the main reason I'm writing today. I've decided to participate in Race for Life this year. Race for Life is a 5k run to raise money for cancer research in the UK. I did the race a couple of years ago, and raised a lot of money. I hope you will sponsor me this time round for a really good cause. Cancer has affected my life and some of the people in my life who are very dear to me in many ways, and it's a very scary disease. Lets all do what we can to fight it and support those who are surviving it, those we have lost to it and those who have lost loved ones to it! I'm doing my part, now it's time for you to do yours. You can click on the link below to sponsor me. Thanks so much!!

Friday, April 17, 2009

Tunisia, Africa

Gosh it's been quite a while since I've blogged. I just got back from a trip to Africa with some girlfriends. What a trip! We all expected some sunshine and wondered if we would be okay wearing a bikini on the beach in a Muslim country. Well, we never got the chance to worry about that at all! We had A LOT of rain, and it was quite chilly! So, it was a different kind of trip than we anticipated, but that actually made it that much cooler, for me anyway. It was such an amazing cultural experience, and I'm proud of us for doing it. So here's the rundown of the trip, as best I can remember it.

There were 4 of us who went, Me, Rachel, Bethany and Sylvia. We all got on really well with each other, and I would travel with these girls again anywhere. Our personalities complemented each other well, which was useful on this trip especially. I must say too, that some of the best moments were those where we girls just sat round shooting the s&!t and being girly in our own little world. I think that's so important, for girls to have that time together. Ya know, like when you can dance to Brit Brit on the tree stump in the kitchen and it just makes sense! Love ya Bethers!! Or just sit and read all the latest US gossip magazines in peace, Rach we sure needed that! Okay, okay, run down of the trip:

Day 1: We flew out from London in the evening, arriving to the Tunis airport at around 10:30 pm. Our hotel was in Tabarka, which was meant to be a 2 1/2 hour drive from Tunis. 3 1/2 hours later, we finally arrived. That drive to the hotel was the only time I actually felt a bit uneasy. We were in the van, that had a familiar smell of my daddy's old farm truck, can't really explain it, but just outside, farm like. We went from paved roads to dirt roads. It was a long drive, but we made the best of it, we sang camp songs, ya know, made the best of it. Until, we got pulled over by the cops! The driver and the police were speaking to one another in Arabic, so we couldn't understand a thing, except they sounded angry with each other. The police officer was armed, and there was some random man hanging out with him. So sketchy! We were sat there in that van for at least 20 minutes, longest 20 minutes of my life. We were all saying our little individual prayers. We still don't know why we got pulled, maybe there was a curfew for transporting women, maybe the drivers registration was out, we don't know, but we finally left the scene, continuing our long journey to Tabarka. Then, we got pulled AGAIN, by another cop! The driver was not scary at all, so I still don't know what was going on. Maybe a seat belt violation? Anywho, got out of that too, and finally arrived to the hotel. We checked in and crashed immediately.

Day 2: We got up and it was raining. So we decided to just get dressed and go out to the grocery store and check out the town a bit. The grocery store was interesting. Everyone was interested in what we 4 American girls were doing in Tabarka, especially without our husbands, God forbid! It was funny. We got stared at a lot, but it was to be expected, as they don't see people like us around much. The people were very friendly and no one treated us inappropriately, they just stared a lot. "No problem, no problem"! So, we took our groceries back to the room, then went out for some lunch. There was not really much English spoken, and none written in Tabarka. French was the second language, so we all did the best we could. Thank goodness for the french phrase book that Sylvia bought at the Heathrow airport! I had pizza with shrimp on it for lunch, kinda weird. From that meal, I decided that we had to get out and about and experience some of the culture. So, that day was just all about the rain. We went back to the room and had a "porch afternoon". We sat out there, heard the call to prayer, watched it rain, which was quite relaxing, we drank some of the tasty beverages that we brought with us from Europe, listened to some good tunes, sang some Dixie Chicks "Cowboy Take Me Away" to the top of our lungs for all the locals to hear (bet that was a first for Tabarka), gossiped, just had a good ole girly afternoon, but this time, in Africa! We went to a shop across the street and did some shopping. Bethany and I gave the shop attendant a right hard time with our haggling, we are good! We made some weird, but very tasty food that we bought from the grocery store for dinner that night, I like to call it Rachel's tomato saucy, cheesy croissant thingys. We just hung out and it was great! Surprisingly, that was a quite late one for us!

Day 3: Today we got up and actually showered. We went out to find some lunch and to see how we wanted to spend the day. We had planned to walk to a cool graveyard we had seen, but well, of course it started raining, again! So, we walked around a little, then found a restaurant that served alcohol, we were sold. So, we had a really nice Tunisian lunch of fresh seafood and couscous. The Tunisian white wine was really nice too! So this lunch was actually more like a really early dinner, as it was already about 5pm by now. I'm trying to remember how it all went. After the dinner, we wanted to check out a shop that we had seen the day before. And so it begins! We shopped for a while, quite a while actually, then when we got ready to pay, we found ourselves just standing there. The shopkeepers came and pulled up four little camel skin stools (kinda like a beanbag chair, but stuffed with paper), side note, we later purchased 4 of these, they are awesome! Anyway, so we sat, right in the middle of the shop. The guys brought us this really yummy mint tea, which was mighty sweet. They pulled up chairs too and sat down with us. Next, out came the hookah, which we all smoked from (cherry tobacco). It was cool. I, obviously don't smoke, but I really enjoyed the hookah, really cool. Then they get out there bongo drums and start making music for us. They kept singing "Shakira Shakira", so I busted out the iPhone and played it for them. They (by "they" I mean the shopkeepers, the locals), were amazed by the iPhone. Anyway, next they get up and start dancing for us, really really awesome! Then Rach and I get up and they wrap these jingly skirts around us and show us how to shake it, it was so much fun! Next Bethany and Sylvia shook their salt shakers! We drank more tea, smoked more hookah, just spent a rainy afternoon being thoroughly entertained. Something of which we probably wouldn't have had the opportunity to do if it had been sunny and were out on the beach, so thank goodness for the rain I guess! We finally haggled our way to some great bargains on all of our loot, and then left. We stopped at a little place and had some drinks before heading home. They served us an artichoke appetizer which was really tasty, and a nice low calorie nibbler. Then, oddly enough, we had a plate of fries sent over to our table by one of the gentlemen in the bar. Some men send over a bottle of wine, some men send over a plate of fries. We ate them all the same! We definitely made the best of a rainy day!

Day 4: So, today was supposed to be our bright and sunny day in Tabarka. We had even hoped to be able to get our swimsuits on and head to the beach. Well, not so much. We had rain, again. Not as much rain, but certainly couldn't lay out. So, we spent the morning in the hotel, catching up on sleep and on our US gossip magazines. We finally got out and about to walk to the castle that was in town. We began our journey, then found another cute restaurant by the marina, so we stopped in for some lunch. Then, finally, THE SUN CAME OUT!!! It actually got a little warm while we were sitting there. The one time I didn't have my sunglasses with me, the sun came out! I'm not complaining though. So, we had another amazing lunch. The server brought out a platter of fresh fish and other seafood for us to choose from. The Lobster was a wiggly fella. So, we ordered the Lobster, yummy! Oh, it was so nice sitting outside by the sea. We have more amazing Tunisian white wine, more bottles than I care to mention. What a great afternoon! Then, we left and went back to our shop to pick up a few more trinkets we had our eyes on. Again, we sat, had a lot of tea, a lot of hookah, another fun time in the shop. Then, oh yeah, we were propositioned to go ride a camel!!! Oh, how exciting. The guy that took us, Aeymen, was a new face, so we asked one of the guys in the shop to ride with us, as we had to ride in a car to get to the camels, and the guys in the shop were the closest we had to someone we could trust. Yeah, could have been a potentially dangerous situation, but we had to do it! So, off to the camels we went. They weren't there at first, I believe they were off being fed. So, we left, and came back. The camels were big! They didn't sit down for us to mount either like I thought they would. We had to be hoisted up on them by the shop men. Then off we went into the sunset! Singing Kenny Chesney "when the sun goes down" all the way. The views were breathtaking. Such an awesome experience!! After we were done with the camels, we went for a ride up to the castle that we had tried to get to earlier. It was cool, again, potentially dangerous, as it was getting dark, but still, had to do it. Then we went for a cool dinner where they had been cooking our food all day in a clay pot. They had to crack the pot open with a stick. Rach and I had prawns, Bethany and Sylvia had the lamb. Really really cool. The weird part was that there were about 40 men in this tiny little restaurant, and then the 4 of us girls!! I felt like we were the feature entertainment of the evening. After dinner, our camel man and some other new friends from the shop invited us to the local casino and promenade, but we declined and invited them to the local bar (which we could walk to, the casino and promenade required a car ride, and it was already after dark). So, we had an evening out with the locals, drinking at the bar, weird but really cool! This was our last night in Tabarka, and it ended well!

Day 5: Today we checked out of our hotel in Tabarka and had our hotel taxi drive us back to Tunis. We decided to spend our last night in Tunis so that we could be closer to the airport the next morning when we had to leave. There was a bit of drama around the taxi ride. In our late night conversation with the camel man, we told him he could transport us to Tunis. It turns out the hotel had to transport us, as we had already paid them for it. So, our camel man stalked us all morning trying to get more money out of us. Lordy! So, we finally got on the road to Tunis, such a long drive! We arrived to our hotel in Tunis, thanks to Virgil for booking, and it was cool. Felt a little like South of the Border, but it was good to just be out of a taxi and settled for the day. We ate a really bad buffet for lunch and dinner, and drank a lot of watered down wine, but it was all included in the cost of the hotel, so we couldn't complain. We had about half an hour of sunshine, so we went out to the beach and took some photos. It was really pretty there, and I would love to see Tunisia in the warm, sunny weather. We just spent our last day recuperating. We played cards, I learned how to play gin rummy, and even won a few times. We shopped some more, obviously! Then we turned in for the night, as we had an early flight the next morning.

So, that was the trip to Africa. It was a different vacation than any other I have ever taken, but I loved it and am so glad we did it! Next destination, Madrid for Cinco de Mayo!!!

Until next time,
Jac

Wednesday, December 31, 2008

bye bye 2008, hello 2009

As 2008 comes to a close, I figured I would write a little something to remember the year. I actually sent this letter out to family and friends with their Christmas cards to share our year with them. Jamey and I plan to make this a yearly Christmas tradition, so that we have a way to keep our memories written down. 2008 was, in a word, busy!!! We had so much fun, but we haven't stopped for a breath yet. We look forward to having an exciting, yet more relaxing 2009! We hope that good things are in store for us, and we are so thankful for all the goodness we have been blessed with so far. Enjoy the story of 2008, and all the best for 2009!

As 2008 comes to a close, it’s nice to reflect back on what we have experienced this year. Jamey and I ended 2007 with the most magical experience yet, our wedding. On December 1st 2007, Jamey and I were married at Rolesville Baptist Church and then had a celebration at the Capital City Club in Raleigh, where we were entertained by the great tunes of Chairmen of the Board. We met (for the second time) at their concert in Charlotte! The wedding was fantastic and we still talk about it with family and friends a whole year later.

We celebrated Christmas and the New Year in Reading with friends. It was a nice Christmas, but we are really looking forward to being in North Carolina this year with family and friends. Jamey celebrated his 30th birthday this year on the 2nd of January, and on the 12th of February, I celebrated my 30th birthday. Jamey took me to see one of my favourite bands, 30 Seconds to Mars, and it was fantastic!

The spring brought about some travel for us and some really exciting times! Jamey’s friend Jimmy came to visit us in Reading and then they met up with another friend Jack for a trip to Eastern Europe. My friend, Bethany, later came for a visit and she and I went to Dublin, Ireland. Jamey and I finally decided to move from Reading to London. It was difficult to leave, as we loved our house in Reading and even more, we loved our friends in Reading. Luckily we still visit our old house from time to time, and we have maintained our close ties with our Reading friends, as I knew we would. Our new flat was left in a bit of a mess, as we moved in, and then left that weekend for our honeymoon!!!

Oh, our honeymoon!! We spent two weeks in the French Polynesian Islands of Tahiti, Moorea and Bora Bora… Talk about Paridise! We had a 26 hour flight from London to New York to Los Angeles to Papeete (Tahiti). We spent the first few nights in Papeete where we just relaxed by the sand pool and on the beach. We had room service, ate at the fabulous breakfast bar with all the fresh fruit, caught up on our sleep from the jet lag, and just chilled out. Then we took a ferry to Moorea where we spent several nights in the most gorgeous villa I’ve ever seen! We were in our very own bungalow in a beautiful garden. The floors and all the décor were made of beautiful Rosewood, the bathroom had beautiful fixtures… words really do it no justice! The beaches were beautiful and the scenery from the mountaintop was breathtaking. We got around town on a scooter (yes, Jamey did the driving, as we all know I’m a little clumsy!). We then flew to Bora Bora where we spent an entire week. If I thought Moorea was beautiful, I hadn’t seen Bora Bora yet! We had an overwater bungalow with a glass bottom floor where we could see the sea life swim by. We had a deck which led us straight out into the sea, where we went swimming. We went snorkelling with the amazing Sea Turtles being rehabilitated at the resort. We kayaked, went windsurfing, played ping pong, learned to play the ukulele (well, not really, but we tried and we brought home a handmade one with our names engraved on the back), swam with sharks, stingrays, ate at Bloody Mary’s (twice!), saw a wedding on the beach, soaked up some amazing sun, we made the most of our time and enjoyed every minute of it, 2 weeks free of TV and telephone!

Back to the real world in London, we found ourselves very busy during the summer, trying to sort out our new flat with all its hiccups. We made a trip to NC for our friends’, Jack and Heather, wedding and then made our annual 4th of July trip to Wrightsville Beach. Back from NC, we arrived and had Jamey’s brother Justin and his wife Holly over for a visit. In August, my brother Lloyd came for a visit for two weeks. We saw all the London attractions and then made a trip to Tenerife, Spain. The weather was gorgeous, food was fantastic, and we had such a great time! We celebrated a 25 year wedding anniversary with our dear friends John and Sue Carter, and then ended the summer with a BBQ at our house with some friends.

Fall brought about a new love of my life… Bikram Yoga. It’s hot yoga, yes, yoga in a room that’s about 100 degrees Fahrenheit! I’m still doing that with my dear friend Rachel, who is a fellow southern belle, living in Reading (working in London) with her hubby Virgil! What fun we have every week! I finally saw Madonna live in concert, after all these years of loving her, and even pretending to be her at a Girls Scout talent show when I was 7 years old! 23 years later, she was still amazing. Recently, we decided it was time to search for yet another place to live. We wanted a house, something a bit more homely than the small flat we are currently in. We searched and searched and found a beautiful house in the West London area called Chiswick. Lloyd visited Chiswick with me and he summed it up when he said "it reminds me of Wake Forest, NC". He’s right, it’s very similar. We can’t wait to get settled into our new home!

The chilly days leading up to the holidays are flying by, as we get ready to move into our new house in Chiswick before we go home to North Carolina for Christmas and New Year’s. We celebrated Thanksgiving this year with some American friends, Ken and Rachel. We had a Whole Foods Thanksgiving at their home. No, not the real thing, but we all work and we didn’t get the time off over here to cook all day, so we had to improvise. I did make a pecan pie though! We have a trip to Paris coming up to celebrate our 1 year wedding anniversary! It has been an amazing first year and we both look forward to what the next has to offer.

From the Wright home (wherever that may be) to yours, Merry Christmas and all the best for a happy and fruitful 2009! We love you.

Jaclyn & Jamey


Wednesday, November 5, 2008

History was made today

It's been such a long time since I've gotten on here to blog. I figured today was as good a day as any to get back on here and document what's been going on in my neck of the woods lately.

My mama and daddy are really amazing me these days. When my brother was visiting me in London back in August, mama and daddy kept Taylor and Ava and they really enjoyed themselves so much. I'm so glad they had the opportunity to spend some quality time as grandma and granddaddy. I think Taylor and Ava really enjoyed it too! Next on their agenda was a trip to Las Vegas and San Francisco area. My Aunt Pearl (granny's sister) just celebrated her 90th birthday, and had a party at her home in California. Mama and Daddy decided to make a vacation out of it and spent some time in Las Vegas. It was their first time there and they really had a ball. I would have given anything to see those two at the slot machines. They saw Donnie and Marie, a Magic Show, a typical Vegas show that my mom won tickets to see! Then they were off to California. They went on a Vinyard tour, which is something that I still want to do someday! I just think it's so awesome that they are seeing the world. In the time that I have lived in Europe, my mom and dad have visited several cities in the UK, Paris, Italy, New York City, Las Vegas, San Francisco... Who know's where the next destination will be? I'm so proud of my mama and daddy!

My brother, (aka one of the men in black) had to work on Halloween!!! Yeah, had to work on the Bud Light party cruise to the bahamas, hard life!!! He and his friend dressed up as the men in black and the photos were great. I'll try to post some later if I can get my hands on any. So yeah, he's doing great, his job is fantastic, my nieces are growing and getting cooler everyday. I can't wait to see them all for Christmas!

As for what's been going on with me, I spent the month of September finishing my dissertation, finally. It was such a relief to turn it in. I finally saw Madonna live in concert back in September at Wembley in London. It was great, but still wish I could have seen her back in the 80s. She's gettin too big for her britches, but she was still great. We just spent halloween (well the night after) with the Texas Exes in London. I was so happy to have the opportunity to dress up. Jamey even dressed up.




I've still been doing my bikram yoga and whole foods dinner dates with my friend Rachel, who is a native Tennessean living in Reading with her hubby, Virgil, who's a native Louisiannan. So glad we have met and become friends, it's nice to have a bit of the familar South around in London! The Christmas season is well on its way here in London. Jamey and I went to the Harrod's Christmas parade on November 1st! It was no Raleigh Christmas parade, but still pretty cool. So, overall, life is good. We're still enjoying living abroad, my job is good, Jamey and I are both healthy, so I feel really blessed!

So, onto the "history part", Today Barack Obama was elected as president-elect for the US. He will be the first African American president in history! I was really happy to see so many Americans get excited about this election. It did not go the way I voted, but I am still very proud to be an American and I support our new leader. I hope he can deliver the promises that he's made, and I hope that all of America will embrace him and support him. God Bless America!

One gripe though, and I've always griped about this.... straight party tickets! I respect that a lot of people had an opinion about the presidential candidates, and voted... but a lot of those also voted straight party for the rest of the offices up for grab, and some really good candidates lost the election due to the high numbers of straight party votes. I don't think you should vote for a party, but rather take time to hear what both candidates have to say and vote based on their political views, policies, and platforms... not just because they belong to a particular party. So next election, please consider all candidates, if you don't know enough about the candidates, do a bit of homework and find out what their views are before voting for them. And for goodness sake, don't vote straight ticket unless you are certain that you want all of those candidates to win against their opponent! Okay, end of gripe.

Well this was a long one, but I was trying to make up for a few months. I'll try not to leave it as long next time. I'll end this one with a quote that I think says a lot, and I hope America will take some advice from one of our great former leaders (who was born on a very important day, if you know what I mean)...

"You cannot help the poor by destroying the rich. You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong. You cannot bring about prosperity by discouraging thrift. You cannot lift the wage earner by pulling the wage payer down. You cannot further the brotherhood of man by inciting class hatred. You cannot build character and courage by taking away people's initiative and independance. You cannot help people permanently doing for them what they could and should do for themselves." -Abraham Lincoln.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

An article by Ben Stein that you should read before you vote!

Before you vote, read this article. It sheds some light on how we got into the financial crisis that we are in.

Jac

Ben Stein How Not to Ruin Your Life

Why I'm Still Buying
by Ben Stein
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Posted on Friday, October 17, 2008, 12:00AM
This is my most serious column yet. So let's get to it.
I get a fair amount of mail about the economy. Lately, much of it asks the same questions:
* What the heck happened to our economy so suddenly and powerfully that it caused the immense uproar and fear and stock market crashes we have had lately?
* Why didn't I, Ben Stein, famous so-called braino, get what was happening and why did I remain optimistic so long?
* What is the future going to bring?
First of all, obviously, I don't know what the future will bring. If I knew the future, I would be the richest man on the planet very soon and I assure you I am very far from that.
But I now see what has happened and I can explain that, and it might give a tiny bit of insight into what will happen in the future.
Start around 1995. Groups involved with civil rights issues and activities for poor people began to complain that poor people and especially non-white poor people got mortgages much less often than white well to do people. Many economists, including me, explained that it was not at all surprising that poorer, less credit worthy people were often turned down for credit. That's how credit is supposed to work: you lend to people who will pay you back.
But the advocates for poor and black people had immense political clout. Under President Bill Clinton, they passed legislation that called on banks to be required to lend to non credit worthy borrowers. The laws, including the Community Reinvestment Act, the CRA, required two large government sponsored enterprises, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, to buy those lower quality mortgages from the banks, guarantee them, and sell them to the public. These were bundled into immense pools of subprime mortgages as they were called, and sold all over the world.Soon, the private sector got into the act in a vast way. They also went to banks and bought their subprime loans, packaged them, and sold them as Collateralized Mortgage Obligations all over the world.
Supposedly, the subprime collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs) were sliced up in such a way that buyers could have a very high likelihood that they would be repaid even if many of the mortgages in the portfolio defaulted. This assumption was based on a misunderstanding of poor quality credit that had been popularized during the era of the junk bond investment powerhouse, Drexel Burnham Lambert.As it happened, these low quality mortgage bonds were recognized as highly likely to have real problems very soon after they started to be issued by private banks in the billions. The people who recognized the high likelihood of defaults were able to profit from that likelihood:
First, they could sell the mortgage securities short, a straightforward wager that has long been available.Second, they could buy credit default swaps (CDS) from financial entities. These were essentially a side bet that anyone could make about a certain mortgage bond (or any other kind of security). It paid off fantastically if the bond went into default or was close to default. The people who sold these CDS were banks and insurers, especially Merrill Lynch and A.I.G., that believed the mortgage bonds would not default and therefore charged very little to the other side, the counterparty, to make the bet.Things went along well for everyone on the long side for several years as the housing market boomed. Even if borrowers could not repay their mortgages, they could refinance the mortgages for more money than was owed on the original mortgage, pay off the first mortgage and live happily in their new home. The mortgage in question in the bond would - again-- be paid off and the bond would continue happily in its owners hands.
Then, the housing market started to stabilize and soon fall, as housing prices do. They move in cycles, although around a rising mean, as we economists say.Now, when the subprime mortgage holder could not pay off his mortgage, he could not refinance. Instead, he had to default. When a lot of these mortgages defaulted, the bonds into which they had been lumped declined in value.So far, I, your humble servant, followed the deal just fine. It was extremely similar to the collapse of the Drexel Burnham Lambert junk bond empire. This had caused barely a ripple in the national economy when it fell apart in the early 1990's. I assumed that the same would happen with junk mortgages. There would be some failed banks and insurers, but the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and the Treasury could make all of those losses good. The total amount of subprime mortgage bonds was large but not compared with bank capital or the regenerative powers of the Fed.
So, I assumed, and wrote, things would be fine.Where I missed the boat was not realizing how large were the CDS based on the junk mortgage bonds. They were not only large, but absolutely staggeringly large. Where the junk mortgage bonds were in the hundreds of billions, the CDS were in the tens of TRILLIONS. If the sellers of the CDS had to pay off in large part, the liability greatly exceeded the total bank capital in the United States and maybe in the world. That is, the derivatives based upon the junk mortgage bonds could be - and were - not in any way limited to the size of the mortgage bonds themselves, and this I did not know until a few months ago.
It is this liability that swamped the banks, investment banks, and insurers. It is the CDS liability that broke AIG and Lehman.When I realized the extent of this problem, I wrongly thought the federal government would step in and in some way rescue everyone who had sold CDS. They did, except they 'forgot' to rescue Lehman. Lehman was so large that when it failed, it was like a torpedo striking an ocean liner below the water line. A gaping hole was left in the whole world finance system.Bankers panicked. If Lehman could fail, then anyone could fail. In that case, the banks that were still solvent figured they had better hoard their assets and stop making loans. This led to the ongoing credit freeze. This led to a rapidly gathering economic downturn and a drastic fall in prices of all kinds of securities, real estate and commodities. It also led to a severe credit squeeze on hedge funds, which saw credit dry up and their asset prices fall suddenly, and were forced to sell stocks and other assets on a dramatic scale, leading to still greater falls in securities prices, and the worldwide panic that it still unfolding.
In turn, this led to huge infusions of liquidity into the banks of the world, the semi-nationalization of the banks of the United States and of many other nations to shore them up, thaw credit, and bolster world markets and economies. These were drastic steps for drastic times, all generated by derivatives. Warren Buffett had warned us against them, and he was dead right, as always.
Now, these acts should help. But it might not do the job all by itself. Major lender solvency issues remain. If housing prices keep falling, more mortgage bonds will default and the liability attached to the credit default swaps based upon them will still be in the trillions or even tens of trillions.I might well be too alarmist here, but I think the only rational possibility is for the federal government or the New York State government (because most of the CDS were entered into in New York) to simply annul the credit default swaps as void as being against public policy. After all, there was no insurable interest in most cases, which tends to void insurance contracts, which is what a CDS is.
Once that happens, the banks can breathe freely again, take risks, and the economy can revive. Or, perhaps the housing market will stabilize, mortgage based bonds will rally, and the CDS will be out of the money and will not be a threat to the lenders. But something has got to happen to de fuse these deadly derivatives.
In any event, we now know a lot we did not know before. Credit default swaps are way too dangerous. Derivatives generally are dangerous. There is much that Ben Stein does not know. I hope this explains some of how we got to this precarious place, I apologize for not seeing it sooner. But I am still optimistic that the government will save us from the CDS, and we will go on to renewed prosperity. In other words, I am still buying.

Thursday, October 9, 2008

Sarah Palin's Newsweek Cover

Just documenting history! Gosh, she looks like Tina Fey from SNL!

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